It can be forgiven for perhaps thinking that the end of Game of Thrones S7E3 was slightly rushed. Because it kind of was. Don’t get me wrong, it was awesome and had yet another clever and classic Game of Thrones twist added, but it’s becoming clear that the writers are trying to wrap certain storylines up ahead of all out war and then the final Season next year. It may have been quite obvious what happened but the logistics and implications might not be as clear, so let’s clear it up.

Tyrion’s plan has been to attack Casterly Rock (the Lannister home) whilst the Dornish and the Tyrells surround King’s Landing and keep Cersei at bay. We know now though that with Ellaria Sand and Yara Greyjoy captured, that plan is out the window. However Tyrion and Dany continue to go ahead with it anyway, having already dispatched Unsullied to the Rock.

Tyrion, whilst growing up was on charge of the sewer system at Casterly Rock, a job given to him by Tywin to keep him out of the way, however whilst building this he also had secret passage added, a way to smuggle things in and out of the keep (in his case, whores). In light of this news, Dany agrees that this will be the way in for the Unsullied, as attacking the walls of the keep would be virtually impossible. It’s a clever plan and works perfectly, as Greyworm storms in leading the Unsullied and destroying the enemy from within, whilst taking the Lannister home.

Plan successful right? Not exactly. As Tyrion predicted, Cersei knew he would attack the Rock and rather than try hold it herself, she emptied the larders, exported any money and provisions and let the Unsullied take it. Whilst doing so, she also had Euron destroy the Unsullied ships with his fleet. It was all too easy from Greyworm’s perspective, who expected much more resistance but Cersei had removed most of her army too. Curious?

So essentially the Unsullied are now stuck in the Lannister ancestral home with no food or provisions and no way back to Dragonstone. Dany will now have to go there and pick them up one way or another, or start providing and hold the keep.

So why did Cersei take most of her army away from the battle for Casterly Rock? It becomes quite clear as we see Jaime and the Lannisters marching on Highgarden. There Ollena sits with her small and not so fantastic, army of Tyrells, awaiting her orders from Dany when the attack commences. To make things worse, Randyll Tarly (sworn to House Tyrell) is riding with Jaime, having obviously chosen the Lannisters. This is a gigantic betrayal and one even Ollena wouldn’t have seen coming.

Jaime storms Highgarden and the battle is won within minutes. You see a great shot of Lannisters filling up boxes of gold (which we’ll come back to) whilst Jaime heads up stairs to the highest point; where Ollena resides. Ollena realises before the Lannisters even attack that the battle is over. Jaime is a strong battle commander and the Lannister army far stronger than the Tyrell’s, so there was no competition really. Jaime offers Ollena a dignified way out and leaves her for dead after drinking the poison in her wine.

So what are the implications of all this? Let’s start with the gold. Highgarden and the Tyrells are known the be the richest House in the seven Kingdoms, and tend to back whoever is winning, they have a history of it. So having them as either an ally or an enemy can make a gigantic difference when at war. On the other hand The Crown owes the bank of Braavos a considerable amount of money, which has been hinted at in previous seasons. King Robert was reckless, putting on constant tournaments and lavish parties, not really caring too much what is spent and The Lannisters have only inherited this. Braavos, like Highgarden tends to also back winners, knowing there’s a higher chance they’ll get their money back, with interest. So it seems smart that they’d be considering backing Dany right? Correct, but Cersei has a plan. She’ll now use the money taken from Highgarden to pay back the bank of Braavos and keep them sweet, whilst cutting off the head of one of Dany’s biggest allies, the Tyrells. In one move Cersei has secured backing of Braavos and destroyed one of Dany’s allies, all whilst we thought it was Tyrion who had the smart plan.

At the beggining of this Season, Dany looked a clear winner, but now? Not so much.

Cersei now has her Lannister army, Highgarden and the provisions it houses, Euron’s Greyjoy fleet, the backing of the Bank of Braavos and the Tarlys. Meanwhile Dany has lost the Tyrells, Dorne, her Greyjoy fleet, and not to mention 8000 stranded Unsullied. Disaster. It’s worth mentioning too that Ollena says to Dany in episode 2 of this season, not to listen to clever men, referencing Tyrion, and she seems to have been spot on. Had Dany attacked King’s Landing when she was strongest and not underestimated Cersei at the Rock, she’d be sitting the iron throne now. It’s a fact.

Dany’s final hopes are now pinned on her Dragons, a horde of Dothraki and John Snow, who has his own battle to fight against the White Walkers; and arguably the most important. So as it stands, Cersei is winning. She’s more cunning, she’s more ruthless. She will do whatever it takes to survive, even if it meant ruling over ashes, something Dany is unwilling to do.

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